Premier League predictions: Gameweek 2

Man City opened the season with an afternoon that flattered nobody. Tavernier put Bournemouth in front, Guéhi hauled City level late, and Gvardiol won it in stoppage time. Enzo Maresca took the win from a game his side spent most of chasing, which counts the same in the table and rather less in the ratings.

Crystal Palace were beaten at Everton without scoring, Dewsbury-Hall and Barry doing the damage on either side of the interval. Pierre Sage now gets City at home on a Friday night, which is a hard way to answer that.

I have City at 54% and Palace at 24%, and the scorelines are less settled than that sounds: 1-1 and 1-2 sit level at the top on 10% each. The xG splits 1.9 to 1.19 — a City win, but a scrappy one.

1. 1–1 10%
2. 1–2 10%
3. 0–1 9%

Liverpool needed a penalty in the last seconds at Newcastle to leave with a point, Szoboszlai converting it after Gakpo had already dragged them level once. Andoni Iraola's side were behind twice and did not lead at all, and still nobody came away thinking Liverpool were the worse team.

Nott'm Forest lost at home to Leeds without scoring, undone by Stach with the game almost gone. Oliver Glasner takes them to a side that has just demonstrated it will keep playing to the whistle.

This is the fixture I expect the most goals in this week, 1.95 to Forest's 1.26 on xG. I make Liverpool 53% and Forest 25%, with 1-1 and 2-1 tied at the top on 10% — a favourite, and not one to lean on.

1. 1–1 10%
2. 2–1 10%
3. 1–0 8%

Bournemouth have owned this fixture. 7 wins from the last 10 meetings since 2019, and not a single draw among them. Whatever else this match has been over the years, it has not been a stalemate.

Everton arrive on the back of a comfortable win over Crystal Palace, Dewsbury-Hall and Barry scoring either side of the break, which is the sort of start David Moyes would have taken. Bournemouth came away from Man City with nothing despite Tavernier putting them ahead.

I have Bournemouth at 56% and Everton at 21%, which is a wider gap than the two performances alone would give them; the record between them is doing some of that work. 1-1 leads my scorelines at 11%, and the xG reads 1.84 to 1.03.

1. 1–1 11%
2. 1–0 10%
3. 2–1 10%

Hull City beat Man Utd 2-0 on the opening weekend, Ajayi and Mendy scoring inside the first half, and I have no more idea than you do what it means yet. Neither of these clubs has a top-flight body of work for me to read, so the percentages here are the softest anywhere on the card.

Coventry City were beaten 3-0 at Arsenal in their own first match back, which tells you very little — Havertz, Saka and Ødegaard would do that to most sides. Frank Lampard's team get the one fixture this week that is genuinely unfamiliar: these two have not met since 1993.

I make Coventry 52% at home and Hull 25%, and I would not put weight on either figure. 1-1 is my likeliest score at 11%, 2-1 behind it, and the xG splits 1.79 to 1.16.

1. 1–1 11%
2. 2–1 10%
3. 1–0 9%

Spurs were taken apart at Brentford, 3-0, with Lewis-Potter, Janelt and Kayode all scoring before the hour. Roberto De Zerbi will have watched that back more times than he wanted to.

Newcastle led Liverpool twice, through Elanga and Willock, and still did not win it — a penalty deep into stoppage time took the points off them. Matthias Jaissle's side have the better week behind them and not a great deal more than that.

This is the closest call on the card: Spurs 39%, Newcastle 37%, the draw 24%. It is also the loudest fixture in the round's history — 43 goals in the last 10 meetings, 4.3 a game — and while 1-1 tops my scorelines at 11%, I would not be surprised by much here.

1. 1–1 11%
2. 2–1 9%
3. 1–2 8%

Brighton put four past Aston Villa without reply, Hinshelwood scoring twice, De Cuyper adding another and Lindelöf turning the first into his own net. It was the widest win of the opening weekend and the sort of result that moves a rating.

Chelsea won at Fulham in a match that never settled down — João Pedro scoring inside the opening minute, Rogers and Palmer either side of half-time, King levelling it and Gonzalo García later pulling one back. Xabi Alonso's side scored freely and defended like a team still being assembled.

I have Chelsea at 44% and Brighton at 32%, closer than home advantage on its own would make it. These two have never been shy in front of each other — 3.6 goals a game across the last 10 meetings — though my scorelines are the more cautious read: 1-1 at 11%, then 2-1.

1. 1–1 11%
2. 2–1 9%
3. 1–0 8%

Leeds won at Nott'm Forest with almost the last kick of the match, Stach settling a game that had given up on goals long before. Daniel Farke's side took the same three points Brentford did and looked nothing like them doing it.

Brentford beat Spurs 3-0 and never looked like being caught, Lewis-Potter, Janelt and Kayode scoring in turn. Keith Andrews could not have asked for a cleaner opening.

There is not much in this for me: Leeds 43%, Brentford 33%, the draw 24%. 1-1 heads the scorelines at 11%, with 2-1 and 1-2 behind it — a match I expect to turn on one goal, without much conviction about whose.

1. 1–1 11%
2. 2–1 9%
3. 1–2 8%

Sunderland lost at Ipswich to a goal in the closing seconds, Clarke punishing them after Angulo had dragged the game back level. Régis Le Bris has had a week to sit with that.

Fulham lost at home to Chelsea in a match with goals running all through it, King and Gonzalo García scoring and neither being enough. Álvaro Arbeloa's side have already shown they can hurt people and have not yet shown they can stop them.

This is the flattest match on my card: Sunderland 39%, Fulham 34%, and a draw at 27% that is the highest I have anywhere this week. 1-1 leads at 13%, the xG reads 1.27 to 1.16, and I would not read a great deal into any of it.

1. 1–1 13%
2. 1–0 11%
3. 0–1 10%

Man Utd lost 2-0 at Hull City, to a side with no Premier League record at all, and I have still made them the biggest favourites of the week. That is worth saying plainly: my ratings took very little notice of a single afternoon, and if you think they should have taken more, this is the match to disagree with me on.

Ipswich won their own opening match, Emersonn and Clarke seeing off Sunderland. Gary O'Neil's side are the most interesting blank on the card — nobody yet knows what they are, my 11% included.

72% to 11% is the widest gap I have this week, and the xG behind it reads 2.31 to 0.79. 2-0 is my likeliest score at 12%, then 1-0. Though if Hull could do that to them, Ipswich may not need to find much.

1. 2–0 12%
2. 1–0 10%
3. 2–1 9%

Aston Villa were beaten 4-0 at Brighton, a scoreline that arrived in a rush — Hinshelwood twice in as many minutes, and the match gone before half-time. Unai Emery has the Monday night slot to put it right, and Arsenal standing in the way of that.

Arsenal opened with a 3-0 over Coventry City, Havertz, Saka and Ødegaard scoring in turn, which was both expected and delivered anyway. The second of those is the part Mikel Arteta will care about.

I have Arsenal at 51% and Villa at 25%. 1-1 is still my likeliest score at 11%, with 0-1 and 1-2 level behind it on 10% — a win I expect without expecting it to be comfortable.

1. 1–1 11%
2. 0–1 10%
3. 1–2 10%